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This is the third annual report to forecast Connecticut’s prison population prepared by OPM. A year ago, OPM predicted that the January 1, 2009 Department of Correction (DOC) total facility population would be 18,849. On that date, the actual population was 18,978, a difference of 129 offenders. Statistically, this prediction was highly accurate with a 0.7 percent difference. In October of 2008, OPM revised its total facility population forecast to account for the addition of resources that were added to assist in reducing a backlog created by the temporary parole ban for violent offenders. This revised 6 month forecast proved to be accurate within 2% with each month’s population coming in at lower than predicted levels.
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In 2008, Connecticut’s prison population declined steadily excluding anticipated seasonal variations. Between February 2008 and January 2009, the prison population fell from 19,894 to 18,971, a decline of over 900 inmates. This reduction in the State’s prison population reflected a combination of factors including, a gradual reduction in a backlog of inmates whose releases were delayed following changes to the parole system in 2007 and 2008, steady improvements in the parole hearing process, increased efficiency in the use of pre-trial diversion programs and optimized facility population management.
OPM projects that the State’s prison population will range between 18,600 and 19,200 in the coming year. This reflects a decline from the 2008 prison population. In addition, the prison population is expected to remain stable or realize a modest decline over the next three years.
Connecticut has been building a more diverse correctional system with a broader range of sanctions and greater use of community supervision that still holds less dangerous offenders accountable while successfully transitioning them to become productive, taxpaying citizens. Appropriate use of community supervision options, ensures that prison beds remain available for the most violent criminals and those who persistently threaten community safety.
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Historically, the last 12 months were an anomaly. On September 21, 2007, Governor Rell instructed the Board of Pardons and Paroles to immediately suspend approval of future parole for any inmate serving a sentence involving a violent offense.
Connecticut’s facility population rose dramatically in the following months. By February 1, 2008, the total facility population had risen to a historic high of 19,894; 748 inmates more than the figure for February 1, 2007. The decline in the offender population occurred due to a reduction in the backlog of parole eligible offenders, an increase in offenders moving through the parole process, and the Department of Correction’s ability to optimize their population management strategies.
Long Range Forecast
- The long range prison population forecast over the next 3 years is predicted to be stable or exhibit a modest decline.
- The long range forecast is predicated on the eventual release of approximately 500 parolees held in backlog and the potential reinstatement of re-entry furloughs that may further reduce the population by an additional 200 to 300 offenders.
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